THE NUMB3RS

There are now no fewer than seven current national polls that show Obama with a double-digit advantage: Newsweek (+11), ABC/Post (+10), Democracy Corps (+10), Research 2000 (+10), Battleground (+13), Gallup (+10 using their Likely Voter II model) and now this CBS News poll. 

The numbers speak for themselves. Though having a few prominent conservative philosophers speak out against McCain surely doesn’t hurt either. Chris Buckley (son of William Buckley Jr; founder of the conservative publication, the National Review) resigned over the weekend after public outcry regarding his column last week in which he asked McCain why in the world he would have chosen Palin as his VP. He is the second columnist at the NR to question the choice of Palin, following in the footsteps of Kathleen Parker who received 12,000 pieces of hate mail after her original column,urging Palin to step down, was published in the NR.  Buckley quoted Ronald Reagan as he left the NR, saying “I haven’t left the Republican Party. It left me.”

If Colin Powell endorses Obama after the debate tonight, as expected based on his views on the management of the Iraq war, it will be “the final nail in the coffin of the Republican campaign to hold onto the White House. “

The conservative politicos are in a real quandary with this election, as the republican party faces an identity crisis which is playing out on the national stage. The fringes of the party have become more extreme, openly shouting “terrorist” and “kill him” at their rallies, and Palin has fit right in by stirring up the pot. Meanwhile many of the mainstream republicans have found appeal in the policy proposals of Obama and Biden. The Republican party no longer stands for the small government (just look at the bailout package the Bush administration proposed) or family values (many have been disillusioned with the political scandals that have plagued the evangelical republican base in recent history). It is increasingly apparent that the republicans don’t have time to reorganize themselves in time for this year’s election, but the party will have to do some extensive soul searching after November in order to solidify a conservative philosophy with a platform relevant in the 21st century. Such a platform would have to appeal to some of the moderate and yes, evangelical, voters which have been leaving the party in droves. This must include practical environmental policies (drill here, drill now is in no way practical or sufficient- the oil won’t be available for 30 years!), an embrace of  the civil rights of individuals based on the foundations of the constitution (which the Bush administration has mauled so horribly in the past 8 years), moderate social policies to address poverty in America (an increasingly important issue among the “religious right”), and base it all on a philosophy of governance that does not include the types of Rovian politics seen of late. The road ahead is a steep one indeed.